Climate Change Update: El Nino weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean double the risk of civil war across Africa, Asia and the Americas

Radio Australia:Pacific Beat:Story:Link between climate change and conflict: HARPER: Historians have suggested that changes in climate may have contributed to the collapse of various ancient kingdoms. Now, researchers at Columbia University are looking at whether unusually hot and dry weather conditions contribute to civil war today. A new study has found El Nino weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean double the risk of civil war across Africa, Asia and the Americas.

The report's lead author is Solomon Hsiang.

HSIANG: What we found was that when we look at tropical countries, when the globe is in its cooler and wetter La Nina state the risk of conflicts throughout the tropics was about 3 per cent per year. So that means three out of one hundred countries were to be expected to begin a new civil war. But when the global climate shifted into it's hotter and drier El Nino stage the risk of civil war rose to about 6 per cent. So that's actually a doubling. And this is actualy a very large effect in absolute terms. What it means is that about one out of five civil conflicts since 1950 were in some way influenced by El Nino.