Climate Change Update: Amphibians' average ability to pick up and leave when things get bad...

Fluctuating Climate May Impede Fleeing Animals | Migrations & Climate Change | LiveScience: "The researchers picked amphibians, because they have an average ability to pick up and leave when things get bad, falling somewhere between migrating birds' ability to fly between continents and plants, which can only hope their seeds wind up in a better place. In addition, there is substantial data available on where these species live and what conditions they can tolerate.

The researchers combined the amphibian data with projections from climate models using two emissions scenarios, one that projected more conservative increases in greenhouse gases and the other projecting more extreme increases. They looked at how the change would play out along paths the creatures could take — broken down into cells one-eighth of a degree latitude by one-eighth of a degree longitude, or roughly 54 square miles (140 square kilometers) — in decade-long increments from 1991 to 2100. [Earth in the Balance: 7 Crucial Tipping Points]

They found that gaps in the animals' treks to new homes were caused when local climate became too hot, too dry or otherwise inhospitable to a species for too long a period. These gaps formed barriers preventing species from continuing their northward shift. "

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